AN UPDATE ON THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION by PATRICK HAGGERTY

by Patrick Haggerty

Republicans won big in the mid-term elections for many reasons.  Senators elected by riding the coat tails of a winning Presidential candidate (Reagan in 1980, Obama in 2008, etc.) often have problems getting re-elected on their own six years later.   This was true for Senate Democrats elected in 2008 in states that are traditionally vote Republican and voted for Romney in 2012.  Republicans also had a great ground game (which they copied from Obama’s 2012 re-election)  and they played upon the electorate’s dislike of our countries problems.   The Republicans “wave election” is a mandate as well as it is a directive to fix  what the electorate feels is wrong with America;  ObamaCare, no realistic Ebola procedures,  IRS abuses, Benghazi, the VA scandal, immigration, White House fence jumpers, etc.  Voters are also upset that Obama and the then Democrat controlled Congress proceeded with their agenda, health care, and not issues the public thought to be more important,  jobs,  the economy, ending the wars in the Middle East, etc.

American voters often change the political party in the White House after eight years in office.  The only time since the World War II that voters elected the same party’s candidate to the White House three terms in a row was 1988 when voters elected then Vice President George H.W. Bush to the Presidency.  Some Republicans are already talking about America not wanting “a third Barack Obama term.”  Therefore, Republicans have a built in advantage in 2016 if they have a good candidate who runs a good campaign with a message that connects with voters.   However,  Democrats have an advantage in that most minorities vote for Democrats.  When Ronald Reagan won in 1980, the electorate was 12% non-white.  In 2014, the electorate was 26% non-white

The following Democrats are 2016 Presidential candidates.

DEMOCRATS
HILLARY CLINTON  The thought that the nomination belongs to Hillary Clinton is starting to be questioned.  The private e-mail server mess just won’t go away.  This combined with Benghazi, Whitewater, Vince Foster, the Rose law firm records, etc. increase voter doubts about her being trustworthy.  However,  she has a large and loyal cadre of Hillary “lovers” who will support her no matter what.   She has tremendous name ID and will have as much staff and money as she needs.  Given the voters actions in the 2014 mid-term elections,  Clinton will have to convince people she will not be four more years of Obama.  She needs to draw distinctions between her and Obama.  She also has to convince people she has “new” ideas,  just as Jeb Bush will have to convince voters he is not his brother or father.

Hillary does not “move” people.  Those who love her, don’t care a bit about her private e-mail server, etc.   Those who hate her will also never change their position.  She needs to find a way to move those who neither love nor hate her.

She has the built in advantage of allowing people to vote for the first female President,   just as Catholics were excited to have the first Catholic President in 1960 and Blacks were thrilled to have the first Black President in 2008.  
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