by Geoff Colvin
It speaks volumes about your own tech strategy.
If you’re a CEO or manager in the U.S. right now, you know that technology is the big, secular factor holding the most danger and opportunity for your business. You’ve got really smart people in your company working hard on how technology can make you more competitive, help you avoid disruption, and maybe even let you disrupt other businesses.
But you should remember that even the smartest technology experts are consistently getting one thing wrong: the speed with which technology is advancing. Let’s take a look at the news of the past few days:
—Software developed at Carnegie Mellon University last week annihilated a group of the world’s best poker players in a No-Limit Texas Hold ’Em tournament. This is highly significant. Twenty years ago, IBM software beat world chess champion Garry Kasparov by modeling millions of scenarios per second. But that approach wouldn’t work against Go, a game too complex for modeling all possible scenarios; so Google combined neural networks and machine learning to beat world champion Lee Sedol last year. That shocked artificial intelligence experts. Christof Koch, chief scientific officer at the Allen Institute for Brain Science, wrote in Scientific American, “Such an event was prognosticated to be at least a decade away.”